Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3897 at 21:58, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:58	ILM 23:59	19%	5%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → ILM 11:18DL 376	5h 18m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → ILM 15:38DL 1292	7h 18m	99%	84%
American Details →	MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 18m	98%	84%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	8h 12m	99%	80%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → ILM 13:39AA 5416 · flown by PSA	5h 19m	95%	79%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 21:48 → ILM 22:54AA 2831	6h 53m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → ILM 22:31DL 3070	5h 52m	91%	71%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 17:28 → ILM 18:26AA 2105	4h 56m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON