tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2862 American MIA 15:33 IND 18:34 30% 10% 1.0% no record
AA 2518 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 IND 23:50 33% 10% 0.9% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 3h 03m Washington DCA 12:03 → IND 14:05AA 4520 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 45m Chicago ORD 11:53 → IND 14:09AA 4713 · flown by Republic 7h 29m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 36m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 43m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 11:29 → LGA 14:26DL 2339 3h 33m New York LGA 17:59 → IND 20:05DL 5635 · flown by Republic 8h 36m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 1h 07m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA 6h 23m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 59m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979 6h 17m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 53m Chicago ORD 20:46 → IND 22:58AA 4740 · flown by Republic 5h 58m 60% 48%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 57% 47%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 49m Detroit DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor 5h 22m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON