Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4024 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4024 MIA 08:10 → JAX 09:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 416 MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4024 Envoy	MIA 08:10	JAX 09:35	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
YX 4682 Republic	MIA 17:39	JAX 19:11	24%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 4069 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:59	JAX 15:23	25%	8%	3.4%	77%
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	32%	13%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON