Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2428 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2428 MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2600 MIA 18:42 → JFK 21:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:33	JFK 09:18	12%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 2341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:38	JFK 11:34	18%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:33	JFK 13:29	25%	8%	1.2%	no record
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 12:24	JFK 15:21	26%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	28%	7%	1.1%	64%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 17:01	JFK 20:16	31%	9%	0.9%	73%
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:22	JFK 19:25	33%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	34%	10%	1.1%	56%
AA 2899 American Flight history →	MIA 14:03	JFK 17:00	37%	13%	1.4%	61%
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:42	JFK 21:40	39%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON