Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1490 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1490 MIA 08:29 → LAS 10:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3321 MIA 17:13 → LAS 19:29 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1490 American	MIA 08:29	LAS 10:45	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1173 American	MIA 10:00	LAS 12:15	33%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 726 American Flight history →	MIA 21:33	LAS 23:40	36%	9%	1.0%	66%
AA 3321 American Flight history →	MIA 17:13	LAS 19:29	40%	15%	1.5%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	93%	79%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550	7h 25m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	50m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 55m	81%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON