Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2387 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 552 MIA 14:41 → LGA 17:38 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:00	LGA 09:57	8%	2%	1.1%	87%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	12%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 605 American Flight history →	MIA 09:08	LGA 12:09	16%	3%	1.2%	88%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:29	LGA 14:26	18%	5%	1.1%	76%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:30	LGA 18:56	22%	7%	1.4%	72%
DL 1485 Delta	MIA 14:00	LGA 17:00	28%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:37	LGA 15:38	30%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2262 American	MIA 19:53	LGA 22:57	32%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 897 American	MIA 15:38	LGA 18:37	32%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 2172 American	MIA 16:33	LGA 19:37	34%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2271 American Flight history →	MIA 17:57	LGA 20:46	36%	9%	1.2%	57%
AA 552 American	MIA 14:41	LGA 17:38	36%	10%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON