Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4693 at 13:44 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4693 Republic	MIA 13:44	MCI 16:08	20%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 670 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	MCI 23:59	35%	8%	1.4%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747	7h 12m	98%	83%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	3h 40m Denver	DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586	9h 45m	99%	83%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 23m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	6h 27m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	8h 11m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	6h 52m	96%	79%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 12:33 → MCI 14:01AA 3233	6h 41m	95%	78%
United Details →	MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435	2h 10m Dulles	IAD 18:03 → MCI 19:51UA 1165	7h 41m	93%	77%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → MCI 12:25AA 1376	8h 00m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	59m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	5h 19m	74%	61%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130	5h 17m	65%	49%
American Details →	MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:24 → MCI 22:06AA 595	5h 29m	36%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON