Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 839 at 16:04, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 839 Southwest	MIA 16:04	MDW 18:15	38%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 53m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 36m	94%	75%
Frontier Details →	MIA 11:39 → ATL 13:59F9 2483	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MDW 18:02F9 2779	7h 23m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	88%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386	59m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 15m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON