tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1551 at 22:38, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1551 American Flight history → MIA 22:38 MEM 23:59 35% 9% 0.9% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 10:23 → MEM 11:14AA 1790 5h 59m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 32m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:11DL 733 6h 51m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681 7h 19m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:47 → MEM 14:26AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 8h 21m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 13:47 → MEM 14:40AA 2852 7h 20m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 10m Houston IAH 16:33 → MEM 18:26UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 6h 57m 92% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 56m Detroit DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049 6h 17m 72% 59%
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:16 → ORD 21:31AA 2194 59m Chicago ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 6h 02m 58% 45%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:18 → DFW 14:26AA 1287 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:18 → MEM 16:58AA 2969 5h 40m 60% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON