tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4785 Republic MIA 20:24 OKC 22:54 29% 9% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 3h 28m Washington DCA 12:28 → OKC 14:48AA 5017 · flown by PSA 9h 29m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490 6h 08m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → OKC 14:56DL 2862 7h 36m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:10UA 1656 9h 33m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 22m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → OKC 12:25AA 1626 7h 10m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → OKC 11:53AA 3099 7h 28m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 8h 13m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784 8h 06m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON