tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:38 → PHX 09:34AA 1983 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 7h 34m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 9h 29m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 20m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 9h 31m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 35m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 02m 89% 68%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 25m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 41m 82% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 56m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 57m 68% 50%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332 49m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 7h 18m 60% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON