Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3304 MIA 16:54 → ORD 19:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	12%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:15	ORD 07:39	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:26	ORD 10:43	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	ORD 00:25	26%	8%	0.9%	70%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	27%	10%	0.8%	82%
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:10	ORD 23:21	28%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 835 American	MIA 12:55	ORD 15:24	31%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	35%	12%	0.8%	59%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 19:16	ORD 21:31	38%	11%	1.0%	62%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	39%	11%	0.9%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:54	ORD 19:32	39%	11%	1.0%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON