Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 775 American Flight history →	MIA 21:14	ORF 23:37	26%	9%	0.9%	67%
MQ 3799 Envoy	MIA 14:17	ORF 16:40	27%	7%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 01m	98%	84%
American Details →	MIA 09:08 → LGA 12:09AA 605	3h 05m New York	LGA 15:14 → ORF 16:51AA 4358 · flown by Republic	7h 43m	99%	84%
American Details →	MIA 10:00 → DCA 12:49AA 1612	2h 15m Washington	DCA 15:04 → ORF 16:23AA 5601 · flown by PSA	6h 23m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	5h 45m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	7h 29m	97%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	56m Washington	DCA 09:56 → ORF 11:16AA 5509 · flown by PSA	4h 57m	90%	78%
American Details →	MIA 15:36 → DCA 18:20AA 3034	1h 55m Washington	DCA 20:15 → ORF 21:20AA 5662 · flown by PSA	5h 44m	93%	77%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → ORF 15:09AA 1323	6h 49m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 17:01 → JFK 20:16DL 1514	51m New York	JFK 21:07 → ORF 22:32DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor	5h 31m	57%	44%
American Details →	MIA 14:03 → JFK 17:00AA 2899	48m New York	JFK 17:48 → ORF 18:56AA 4359 · flown by Republic	4h 53m	48%	36%
American Details →	MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → ORF 00:23 +1AA 1379	7h 38m	57%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON