Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2795 MIA 16:53 → PHL 19:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	14%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 2188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:04	PHL 00:55	21%	7%	1.0%	76%
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:18	PHL 14:18	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 3274 American	MIA 20:03	PHL 23:06	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
F9 1204 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:21	PHL 00:27	26%	12%	1.3%	69%
AA 2191 American	MIA 13:56	PHL 16:51	28%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 3169 American	MIA 17:52	PHL 20:39	28%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2795 American	MIA 16:53	PHL 19:50	30%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON