Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1983 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1983 MIA 07:38 → PHX 09:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1138 MIA 13:45 → PHX 15:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1983 American Flight history →	MIA 07:38	PHX 09:34	15%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 10:49	PHX 12:35	24%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 2107 American	MIA 19:58	PHX 21:51	27%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1138 American	MIA 13:45	PHX 15:37	30%	10%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	6h 56m	88%	73%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	7h 04m	92%	71%
American Details →	MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	6h 58m	86%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON