Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2321 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2321 MIA 08:29 → RDU 10:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1286 MIA 21:47 → RDU 23:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2321 American Flight history →	MIA 08:29	RDU 10:46	15%	5%	0.9%	91%
AA 3281 American	MIA 14:03	RDU 16:20	29%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 1649 American	MIA 16:32	RDU 18:51	30%	12%	1.2%	no record
DL 2992 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:28	RDU 20:53	32%	11%	1.0%	65%
AA 1566 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	RDU 21:17	32%	12%	1.1%	69%
AA 1286 American Flight history →	MIA 21:47	RDU 23:59	32%	10%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON