tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 983 at 21:09, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 983 American Flight history → MIA 21:09 RIC 23:37 32% 8% 1.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152 7h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19DL 2650 5h 19m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → RIC 12:04AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 23m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:47 → EWR 11:53UA 408 3h 22m Newark EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214 6h 53m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → RIC 19:35DL 1348 7h 25m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → RIC 00:17 +1DL 1175 7h 38m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 17:01 → JFK 20:16DL 1514 1h 09m New York JFK 21:25 → RIC 23:22DL 4659 · flown by Endeavor 6h 23m 72% 47%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:25 → EWR 14:22UA 2433 53m Newark EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic 5h 31m 53% 44%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:49 → RIC 22:51AA 3037 7h 18m 71% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON