tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1468 at 20:00, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 20:00 SAT 22:14 35% 10% 1.0% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 18m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:38 → PHX 09:34AA 1983 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570 10h 09m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 09m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 9h 14m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 7h 19m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 22m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 9h 44m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → SAT 12:02AA 413 7h 37m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 6h 28m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → SAT 20:01AA 2368 5h 28m 67% 40%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828 1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 23m 65% 38%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 18m 47% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON