Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4345 at 12:34 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4345 Republic	MIA 12:34	SDF 15:19	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 647 American Flight history →	MIA 21:05	SDF 23:42	37%	12%	0.8%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	6h 31m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 34m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → SDF 12:16AA 5145 · flown by PSA	6h 01m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 45m	98%	84%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	6h 38m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	7h 03m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 11:29 → LGA 14:26DL 2339	1h 44m New York	LGA 16:10 → SDF 18:51DL 5651 · flown by Republic	7h 22m	93%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	50m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	4h 11m	74%	67%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:20AA 3055	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:11 → SDF 17:27AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	59%	48%
American Details →	MIA 12:18 → DFW 14:26AA 1287	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:40 → SDF 18:58AA 2049	6h 40m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON