Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 32–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 506 MIA 18:26 → SEA 22:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest AS 305 MIA 18:20 → SEA 22:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	32%	10%	0.8%	60%
AA 3252 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SEA 00:07	33%	10%	0.9%	64%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	35%	10%	1.0%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 30m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	9h 06m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON