Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 590 MIA 16:42 → SFO 19:52 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	19%	6%	0.7%	90%
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 07:10	SFO 10:21	20%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 2347 American	MIA 20:58	SFO 00:05	34%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 590 American	MIA 16:42	SFO 19:52	38%	13%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	95%	75%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 20m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	93%	72%
American Details →	MIA 07:07 → LAX 09:34AA 713	1h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 11:02 → SFO 12:42AA 1110	8h 35m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON