tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:38, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:38 → PHX 09:34AA 1983 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 37m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 33m Denver DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256 8h 40m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 10h 29m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046 8h 39m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 10:49 → PHX 12:35AA 3172 3h 59m Phoenix PHX 16:34 → SJC 18:40AA 2094 10h 51m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 9h 44m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 1h 06m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745 8h 25m 78% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 8h 02m 69% 53%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 33m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56AA 364 8h 11m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON