Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3033 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3033 MIA 06:42 → SJU 09:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1689 MIA 18:49 → SJU 21:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3033 American	MIA 06:42	SJU 09:15	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:24	SJU 11:10	17%	5%	1.0%	86%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	MIA 11:18	SJU 14:07	22%	8%	1.0%	85%
F9 3378 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 23:30	SJU 02:20	23%	10%	1.8%	71%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MIA 13:03	SJU 15:50	27%	9%	1.5%	60%
F9 2284 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 17:49	SJU 20:49	29%	11%	1.5%	77%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	MIA 18:49	SJU 21:23	31%	11%	1.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON