tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Frontier via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 976 Delta MIA 07:14 SLC 10:18 12% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 1017 American MIA 19:44 SLC 23:05 32% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 2h 41m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 11:22 → DCA 14:05DL 2888 3h 40m Washington DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 11h 19m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 45m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 31m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 27m Detroit DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117 10h 37m 99% 80%
FrontierDetails → MIA 06:00 → DEN 08:23F9 1279 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:35 → SLC 11:19F9 3219 7h 19m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 9h 46m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 47m Detroit DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 7h 56m 67% 55%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 49m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 6h 58m 57% 43%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:20AA 3055 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:09 → SLC 16:00AA 1456 7h 00m 60% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON