Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707	10h 19m	99%	85%
American Details →	MIA 07:38 → PHX 09:34AA 1983	1h 31m Phoenix	PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656	8h 01m	100%	80%
United Details →	MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441	9h 09m	96%	79%
United Details →	MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435	1h 57m Dulles	IAD 17:50 → SNA 20:40UA 2319	10h 30m	91%	78%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:41 → SNA 10:58AA 1939	8h 33m	97%	78%
American Details →	MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465	9h 37m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	9h 31m	98%	77%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 45m Houston	IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533	8h 08m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 16:14 → SNA 18:47UA 1317	9h 17m	74%	55%
United Details →	MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852	46m Denver	DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704	7h 55m	55%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON