tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4071 at 22:54, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4071 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 22:54 SRQ 23:59 21% 5% 1.0% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 5h 48m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 7h 47m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:00 → LGA 09:57DL 2387 1h 32m New York LGA 11:29 → SRQ 13:53DL 2412 6h 53m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 6h 00m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 6h 09m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 5h 48m 90% 70%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 7h 53m 99% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 1h 08m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 5h 22m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON