Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1940 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1940 MIA 05:50 → STL 07:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1594 MIA 20:54 → STL 22:54 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1940 Southwest	MIA 05:50	STL 07:37	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2522 Southwest	MIA 10:29	STL 12:25	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3954 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 15:48	STL 17:49	23%	5%	1.0%	94%worse than usual
AA 1594 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	STL 22:54	29%	8%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON