Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 943 at 10:05, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 943 American Flight history →	MIA 10:05	STT 13:02	25%	8%	1.1%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	8h 04m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 49m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON