Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1977 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 MIA 08:24 → TPA 09:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3246 MIA 18:09 → TPA 19:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American	MIA 08:24	TPA 09:35	18%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 1980 American	MIA 13:03	TPA 14:14	32%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 1714 American Flight history →	MIA 23:13	TPA 00:19	33%	10%	1.3%	71%
AA 2798 American Flight history →	MIA 15:40	TPA 16:49	36%	12%	1.6%	45%
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 20:48	TPA 21:57	40%	11%	1.5%	59%
AA 3246 American	MIA 18:09	TPA 19:21	41%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON