tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620 7h 04m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 9h 52m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 2h 31m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 9h 02m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361 2h 12m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → TUL 14:12AA 2657 6h 52m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 7h 07m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:54 → ORD 19:32AA 3304 2h 58m Chicago ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 37m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → TUL 12:02AA 2352 7h 37m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043 6h 39m 94% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:16 → ORD 21:31AA 2194 59m Chicago ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 6h 15m 60% 47%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:48AA 531 5h 15m 56% 32%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:25 → TUL 21:41AA 2014 5h 04m 39% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON