Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4000 Envoy	MIA 16:37	TYS 18:53	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2716 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	TYS 23:59	29%	8%	1.0%	43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148	6h 26m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817	4h 49m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571	6h 16m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437	5h 50m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004	54m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	4h 23m	84%	73%
American Details →	MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544	7h 32m	97%	72%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	1h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 10:57 → TYS 13:10AA 5951 · flown by Piedmont	6h 25m	93%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437	4h 29m	74%	60%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	54m Houston	IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa	6h 19m	72%	52%
American Details →	MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081	6h 14m	60%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON