Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4300 at 23:10, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4300 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:10	VPS 23:59	18%	4%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832	6h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170	6h 28m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 30m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097	6h 03m	95%	77%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	7h 03m	96%	70%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 21:00 → VPS 21:39AA 2197	6h 38m	94%	66%
American Details →	MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	8h 38m	99%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 16:56 → VPS 17:49AA 5201 · flown by PSA	5h 19m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON