tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4518 at 21:34, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4518 Republic MIA 21:34 XNA 23:36 18% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205 3h 14m New York LGA 13:13 → XNA 15:35AA 4472 · flown by Republic 9h 39m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:05 → DFW 09:24AA 2575 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 7h 58m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:00 → LGA 09:57DL 2387 1h 14m New York LGA 11:11 → XNA 13:34DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor 7h 34m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 7h 37m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → XNA 16:51DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor 7h 14m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771 7h 04m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 46m Chicago ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy 8h 02m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:36 → DCA 18:20AA 3034 1h 42m Washington DCA 20:02 → XNA 21:50AA 3452 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386 48m Atlanta ATL 21:04 → XNA 22:01DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 5h 01m 57% 45%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 51m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710 4h 53m 56% 43%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → XNA 21:20AA 1197 5h 35m 41% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON