Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1221 MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1206 MKE 17:58 → ATL 21:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1221 Delta Flight history →	MKE 05:45	ATL 08:46	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	MKE 10:20	ATL 13:24	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 1236 Delta Flight history →	MKE 06:50	ATL 09:57	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:56	ATL 16:05	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	MKE 14:59	ATL 18:06	13%	5%	1.8%	86%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	MKE 17:58	ATL 21:21	15%	7%	1.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON