tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Chicago ORD 07:14 → AUS 10:05UA 1336 5h 05m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 8h 06m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 39m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 8h 30m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 5h 35m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:03 → IAH 11:12UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 7h 26m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MKE 07:50 → ORD 09:00UA 4803 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 6h 51m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Chicago ORD 13:40 → AUS 16:29UA 1211 7h 39m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MKE 17:41 → DFW 20:25AA 869 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 4h 58m 75% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON