Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2526 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2526 Southwest	MKE 05:46	BWI 08:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 655 Southwest	MKE 16:31	BWI 19:35	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 07:44 → BWI 10:37UA 1269	4h 37m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	6h 16m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711	6h 22m	98%	86%
American Details →	MKE 05:08 → ORD 06:21AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:54 → BWI 12:59AA 4253 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	98%	86%
United Details →	MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	6h 37m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:56 → ATL 16:05DL 1151	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928	5h 49m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267	6h 25m	99%	81%
United Details →	MKE 10:59 → ORD 11:57UA 5559 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:48UA 2737	5h 49m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON