Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2866 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2866 American Flight history →	MKE 08:30	CLT 11:38	16%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 2395 American	MKE 17:51	CLT 20:55	29%	8%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MKE 06:14 → PHL 09:39AA 5200 · flown by PSA	1h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → CLT 12:33AA 847	5h 19m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 46m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 13m	90%	79%
American Details →	MKE 05:08 → ORD 06:21AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:07 → CLT 11:15AA 411	5h 07m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	7h 04m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:56 → ATL 16:05DL 1151	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	6h 11m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MKE 17:58 → ATL 21:21DL 1206	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 00m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON