tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history → MKE 07:42 DCA 11:08 9% 3% 1.5% 84%
WN 3048 Southwest MKE 16:01 DCA 19:09 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961 7h 01m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Chicago ORD 07:14 → DCA 10:07UA 1077 4h 07m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 07m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:08 → ORD 06:21AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Chicago ORD 09:55 → DCA 13:08AA 315 7h 00m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 7h 53m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 7h 06m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Chicago ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668 7h 02m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:35 → ORD 08:51AA 6479 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Chicago ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:48AA 1200 5h 13m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 4h 25m 63% 49%
UnitedDetails → MKE 12:05 → ORD 13:11UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 49m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 4h 07m 57% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON