Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3102 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3102 MKE 09:33 → DTW 11:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3965 MKE 16:42 → DTW 19:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3102 Delta	MKE 09:33	DTW 11:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3757 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:11	DTW 09:30	11%	5%	0.6%	76%
OO 3981 SkyWest	MKE 13:36	DTW 15:59	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3965 SkyWest	MKE 16:42	DTW 19:01	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 5476 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MKE 13:22	DTW 15:37	33%	18%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON