Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5536 at 08:03, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5536 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:03	IAH 11:12	12%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 6254 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MKE 10:46	IAH 13:40	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231	5h 36m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 48m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:56 → ATL 16:05DL 1151	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	7h 08m	99%	82%
American Details →	MKE 06:14 → PHL 09:39AA 5200 · flown by PSA	3h 25m Philadelphia	PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:43AA 2486	9h 29m	100%	82%
United Details →	MKE 06:14 → EWR 09:35UA 3470 · flown by Republic	3h 01m Newark	EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204	9h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → IAH 14:30DL 1307	7h 19m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	5h 38m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	6h 19m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON