tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1087 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1087 Southwest MKE 06:14 LAS 08:02 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3146 Southwest MKE 16:56 LAS 18:59 23% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Chicago ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19UA 574 6h 19m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:03 → IAH 11:12UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 9h 34m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 20m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549 10h 00m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 17m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 7h 01m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 6h 23m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:47 → LAS 17:02DL 659 8h 42m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 6h 29m 67% 51%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:20 → ORD 15:31UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 16:38 → LAS 18:30UA 365 6h 10m 75% 43%
AmericanDetails → MKE 17:41 → DFW 20:25AA 869 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371 6h 37m 71% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON