Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5625 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 08:10	LGA 11:28	9%	3%	1.5%	89%
YX 5677 Republic	MKE 13:00	LGA 16:23	15%	6%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733	6h 47m	98%	88%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 07:59 → LGA 11:16UA 2092	5h 16m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 05m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 25m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	8h 00m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	5h 54m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	8h 07m	100%	82%
United Details →	MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669	6h 06m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MKE 12:05 → ORD 13:11UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821	4h 17m	57%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON