Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:57, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657	6h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741	6h 12m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	6h 57m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747	6h 27m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	6h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023	6h 55m	98%	79%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:56 → MCI 10:32UA 1764	5h 32m	98%	79%
American Details →	MKE 05:08 → ORD 06:21AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:16 → MCI 11:59AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MKE 12:05 → ORD 13:11UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest	56m Chicago	ORD 14:07 → MCI 15:36UA 545	3h 31m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON