tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3869 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3869 Southwest MKE 05:56 MDW 07:00 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4705 Southwest MKE 14:01 MDW 15:05 14% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 54m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 4h 57m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 5h 10m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 16m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 5h 35m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 2h 29m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 5h 07m 90% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON