Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5799 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 5799 MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5648 MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	7%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:08	ORD 06:21	8%	5%	1.1%	69%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	16%	5%	1.1%	89%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	17%	6%	1.1%	74%
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:35	ORD 08:51	18%	6%	1.1%	70%
OO 4993 SkyWest	MKE 08:36	ORD 09:54	19%	7%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	MKE 11:37	ORD 12:44	20%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	21%	6%	1.1%	78%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:59	ORD 11:57	21%	9%	1.2%	63%
MQ 4035 Envoy	MKE 14:50	ORD 15:50	24%	7%	2.0%	no record
MQ 4096 Envoy	MKE 20:12	ORD 21:02	27%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:05	ORD 13:11	28%	10%	1.2%	69%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:20	ORD 15:31	28%	11%	2.5%	65%
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 13:23	ORD 14:35	29%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:53	ORD 19:55	30%	9%	1.3%	73%
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 17:29	ORD 18:40	42%	11%	1.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON