Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3060 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3060 MKE 04:59 → PHX 06:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 899 MKE 14:42 → PHX 16:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3060 Southwest	MKE 04:59	PHX 06:36	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 270 Southwest	MKE 10:05	PHX 11:46	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 851 Southwest	MKE 13:46	PHX 15:43	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 899 American Flight history →	MKE 14:42	PHX 16:30	24%	7%	0.8%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON