tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 08m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 23m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Detroit DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761 9h 03m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:03 → IAH 11:12UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 9h 45m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:56 → ATL 16:05DL 1151 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 8h 34m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145 6h 18m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → MKE 10:46 → IAH 13:40UA 6254 · flown by Mesa 2h 46m Houston IAH 16:26 → SAN 17:54UA 2798 9h 08m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 10:46 → IAH 13:40UA 6254 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 7h 02m 73% 57%
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 6h 52m 67% 54%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:20 → ORD 15:31UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 53m Chicago ORD 16:24 → SAN 18:48UA 2138 6h 28m 66% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON