Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 507 at 14:59, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	MKE 14:59	SEA 17:24	19%	4%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 18m	96%	80%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 06:59 → SEA 09:39UA 341	6h 39m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 45m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	11h 00m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	6h 51m	96%	75%
United Details →	MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660	9h 19m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	7h 20m	69%	55%
United Details →	MKE 14:20 → ORD 15:31UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801	6h 46m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON