tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4068 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4068 Southwest MKE 06:19 STL 07:46 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3066 Southwest MKE 14:46 STL 16:15 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:57 → MSP 17:23DL 2006 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 6h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:20 → ATL 13:24DL 2999 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 19m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:08 → ORD 06:21AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Chicago ORD 08:56 → STL 10:21AA 2818 5h 13m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 5h 38m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:55 → STL 14:23UA 4581 · flown by GoJet 5h 33m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:35 → ORD 08:51AA 6479 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Chicago ORD 12:05 → STL 13:28AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Chicago ORD 09:00 → STL 10:34UA 4613 · flown by GoJet 5h 34m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON