tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1413 United MRY 05:09 DEN 08:42 6% 3% 1.2% no record
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 12:29 DEN 16:19 15% 7% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610 7h 21m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 6h 46m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:36 → DFW 18:17AA 2879 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:21 → DEN 22:40AA 577 9h 04m 93% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 4h 34m 54% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON